Quarterly Market Update – November 2021

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Quarterly Market Update – November 2021

November 2021

ItemCountry of OriginBeginning of harvestEnd of harvestReport Quarter
Baby CornThailandYear roundYear roundCrop yields are as expected. Cost increases are due to Thailand in-country transportation costs, as well as packaging and tin costs.
Tuna AlbacoreThailandYear roundYear roundCatchings are steady. Demand overall is lower. This is offset by cost increases in Thailand in-country transportation costs, as well as packaging and tin costs.
Tuna SkipjackThailandYear roundYear roundCatchings are steady. Demand overall is lower. This is offset by cost increases in Thailand in-country transportation costs, as well as packaging and tin costs.
Canned MushroomsHollandYear RoundYear RoundRaw material costs have increased, as well as packaging costs and supply chain costs. The supply of mushrooms is steady, but worldwide demand is very high.
ArtichokesPeruAugNovThe Peruvian harvest starts late in July and is very close to being sold out. The global demand for booking is very strong due to a large decrease in volume of the Spanish crop. Base costs from Peru will be increasing 8-10% due to mandated wage increases, packaging costs, and logistics expense.
RaspberriesSerbiaJulSepSignificant warm weather in both the Pacific northwest and Serbia is going to have an impact on crop size and yield. There is currently a large demand in the market, and zero carryover of product from previous crops. Normally carryover is 20-30m lbs. going into the European season. The combiation of zero carryover and a short crop will send prices extremely high this season.
Brussel SproutsBelgiumNovDecThere is carryover inventory. New crop yields are good.
Onions blanchedChinaApril; OctMay; NovCrop yields are good, and raw material processings are going to be dependent on labor availability.
Onions caramelizedBelgiumOctFebCrop yields are good, and raw material processings are going to be dependent on labor availability.
SpinachMexicoNovMarCrop yields are as expected.
OkraEl SalvadorMarJunCrop yields are as expected.
Manzanilla OlivesSpainOctFebThe harvest is starting. Crop is average in size and quality. Prices are stable.
Queen OlivesSpainOctFebCrop is shorter than expected with little carryover. Prices are expected to increase significantly.
Ripe OlivesSpainOctFebNew crop will have good yield and sizing. Pricing will be affected by ocean freight.
MangoMexicoJunJulThe Mexican crop is nearing conclusion. Weather created many challenges to meeting budgeted demand. Prices are higher than in 2020.
Avocado/GuacamoleMexicoOctAprMexico is now in its cold, wet season and is coming off one of the wettest summers on record. Crop yields are down. Expect price increases.
Olive OilSpainNovMarOil stocks are very tight due to low carryover from the previous year’s crop. Expectation shows an average to below-average production year, but a few good rain events over the next month could increase the likelihood of an average year. Extra virgin olive oil will be hard to come by until the 2021 crop arrives in January.

Logistics Update

Metal chain with red rope instead of one link

Which items are in short supply? Electronics? Cars? Appliances? Exercise equipment? Toys? The past few weeks, the media has been warning to shop for the holiday season now or risk being shut out of the hot gift market. 

What about food items from overseas? We cannot speak for all food importers, but Savor Imports can report we are finally seeing ocean freight stabilization, with the exception of China and Turkey. This past week was the first where paid ocean freight was lower than the forecasted expense. We see that as a sign. It is not a big enough sign to drastically reduce our ocean freight expense budgets for next year, but we are optimistic prices have hit their highs and price declines could happen in Q2/Q3 of 2022. We do not expect anywhere near enough to counteract the increases experienced in 2021, but do expect meaningful decreases.

Reliability of service and hitting key event dates will continue to be an issue well into 2022. Savor has been transparent about our plan to offset service inconsistency by providing everyone in the supply chain longer lead times. It might force us to carry extra inventory, but we will bear that financial burden to service our customers. Our last period service levels to US customers are the highest they’ve been since May of 2021. We’re not proud of the mid-70% fill rates, but are executing our plan and see them returning to a “normal” level in 2022.

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asia to NA 9.6.21